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By Richard Morochove
First published March 25, 1999
Today, Microsoft's Windows operating system rules the personal computer roost. Challengers such as Apple's Mac OS and IBM's OS/2 have either retreated to a niche market or thrown in the towel.
Windows has what amounts to a monopoly on the PC desktop. If you purchase a new computer, you have little choice. Chances are Windows will come factory-installed on the hard drive. Windows is the accepted religion of the personal computer world.
The de-facto operating systems monopoly of Windows is at the heart of an anti-trust suit filed against Microsoft by the U.S. Department of Justice and 19 U.S. states. Microsoft has been accused of leveraging its dominant position in operating systems to extend its control into other areas, such as Internet software.
Will Windows always be number one? IBM, the world's largest computer company, couldn't knock Windows off its perch after spending a reputed $1 billion (U.S.) developing and promoting its OS/2 operating system.
What company would be prepared to spend that kind of dough to take another run at toppling Microsoft's Windows? No sane company would make such a large investment when facing such uncertain prospects for success.
Microsoft's biggest competitive concern regarding Windows, as revealed in a recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, is a freebie operating system that has no big-time financial backing and is controlled by a loosely-run organization of volunteers.
No sane company would attack Fortress Windows. But it's under siege by an insanely great band of volunteer programming militia. Microsoft is worried about Linux, the little operating system that could threaten its monopoly.
Linux is an operating system derived from Unix. Unix was developed years ago by the Bell Laboratories group, formerly part of the AT&T communications empire.
Unix grew in popularity, particularly in the student community, since it was used by many colleges and universities. In its early years even Microsoft sold a version of Unix.
Computer makers such as IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Digital Equipment each developed their own versions of Unix optimized for their computers. However each new flavor of Unix contained new features that made it incompatible in some way with other versions of the operating system. It was just this multiplicity of versions that held Unix back from greater success.
Linux can be viewed as yet another variant of Unix. However, it wasn't created by a large computer maker to run only on its own machines. Linux is the invention of just one talented man, Linus Torvalds.
In 1991 Linus Torvalds was a 21-year-old enrolled at Finland's Helsinki University, tinkering with a new version of the Unix operating system. He couldn't afford to buy a commercial operating system, so he wrote his own. He posted the software source code on an Internet server and a few people downloaded it. Soon, some users sent back program enhancements.
Interest in the new operating system, dubbed Linux, mushroomed. In 1996, U.S. computer trade magazine InfoWorld named Linux the world's best desktop computer operating system.
Today a legion of 10,000 programmers freely donate their services to improve the operating system. Earlier this month, Corel CEO Michael Cowpland estimated there were 12 million Linux users. The number of users has skyrocketed by 80 per cent in the past year, making Linux the world's fastest-growing operating system.
Linux isn't developed or distributed using the standard methods of commercial software firms. Companies like Microsoft hire teams of programmers who create the source code of the software. The source code is compiled into executable code that will run on a computer. Then it's debugged and sold.
Lately it seems more software, particularly Microsoft's, is sold first and debugged later, due to the pressure of meeting corporate sales budgets. Commercial software is never bug-free. Periodically, perhaps once a year, a new version is released that fixes some old bugs and happens to introduce some new ones.
Linux is a leading example of an open source program, an alternative to commercial software development. These programs are developed by non-profit co-operatives, a group of programmers who improve a program for their mutual benefit. These programmers don't work for the lush rewards, the stock options and big houses doled out by the software giants. They work for the admiration of their peers, who admire the elegant hack or program improvement.
In commercial software companies, the source code is a closely guarded secret. In the open source community, it's available to all. If there's a bug discovered in the source code, any programmer can attempt to fix it. This means far more new versions, sometimes more than one a day, are released to stamp out bugs fast. Keeping up with the flood of new versions can be dizzying, the collective effort to quash bugs makes for a better, more reliable program.
The free software developed by the open source community can be of higher quality than commercial programs that sell for thousands of dollars.
The open source community reminds me of the tight little group of PC users in the early eighties and the fanatics in the Macintosh world of the late eighties. It has all the fervour of a religious movement. Torvalds preaches that he feels morally right working with open source software.
Several commercial software companies have taken Linux and packaged it so that it's easier to install and added support services, selling the operating system at a profit.
This is anethma to Free Software Foundation founder Richard Stallman, who believes that all software should be free. Torvalds, on the other hand, is more pragmatic. He believes there's a lot of power in combining open source software with commercial software development.
Torvalds now works in Silicon Valley for the ultra secretive Transmeta Corp. (check out its informative web site at www.transmeta.com), controlled by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Transmeta is reportedly working on a hot new microprocessor.
There's a risk that Linux could splinter, like Unix before it, into many different variants. While the core of Linux, its kernel, is free, the commercial distributions include the Linux kernel plus drivers, utilities and supplemental applications. The commercial distributions are all slightly different.
Commercial distributors of Linux include Red Hat and Caldera Systems, both based in the U.S., SuSE in Europe and Pacific HiTech in Japan.
A veritable who's who of the computer world are backing Red Hat. The company's investors include Intel, Netscape Communications, IBM, Compaq Computer, Novell and Oracle.
What do traditional software developers think of the open source movement? Jeff Papows, president and CEO of Lotus Development, doesn't see open source posing a threat to his company, which sells Internet software such as Domino server as well as office applications such as the 1-2-3 spreadsheet.
Papows sees the dynamics of open source appealing to programmers working on new projects that appeal to a large number of users. When it comes to specialized applications or software maintenance upgrades he believes fewer programmers will be interested in participating.
In short, Papows see open source working for the big sexy projects but believes programmers will drift away from the relatively boring support and maintenance work.
Could Linux replace Microsoft's Windows at the top of the operating systems heap?
It depends which Windows you're talking about. Microsoft has cleverly created several versions of its graphical operating system, optimized for different hardware platforms. There's Windows CE for handheld computers, Windows 98 for desktop computers and Windows NT for powerful workstations and servers.
The core of Linux appeal now lies in the server market. Here the operating system's reliability and industrial strength is much appreciated. A Linux server can run continuously for many weeks before it needs to be re-booted or taken down for operating system-related maintenance.
A glitch that affects computers running Windows 95/98 continuously for 49 days was only recently uncovered. It took so long to discover the bug because most PCs running Windows crash long before that time.
Granted, Microsoft's Windows NT is somewhat more stable than Windows 98. Yet NT's strength comes at the expense of bloated software code that requires a powerful PC to deliver adequate performance. Linux can run comfortably on a 486-based PC that's technologically obsolete in the Windows world.
Linux is particularly popular with Internet Service Providers. For many of them Linux is the preferred operating system to run the most popular web server, Apache, which is yet another open source program.
However users of desktop PCs have different priorities. They want an operating system that's easy to set up and use.
Linux requires no small degree of technical knowledge to install. Just consider how the operating system can know how to operate all the possible graphics accelerators, scanners, printers and other devices that might be used by a home computer.
Microsoft has the co-operation of all the major makers of hardware devices and peripherals who create software drivers for Windows. Yet Windows still has problems recognizing some devices during its installation.
Little Linux has nowhere near the clout of Windows when it comes to gaining the attention of hardware makers. So Linux drivers are harder to find, if they exist. While 12 million Linux users sounds like a large number, it's just a small fraction of the world's estimated 210 million personal computers, most of which run Windows.
Once you get Linux operating, stroll down the Linux section of your favourite software store to check out the available applications programs. Can you even find a Linux section in the store? If you do, you'll find far fewer programs written for Linux than Windows.
Yet Linux has a powerful ally in Wine, a Windows emulator. Wine allows Windows applications to run under Linux. Wine isn't a complete solution. Of the 1,100 Windows applications in the Wine database, just over 100 run perfectly using the emulator, but that number is growing. It's estimated that 90,000 people currently use Wine.
Clearly the best solution is for more software developers to recognize the potential of Linux and write versions of their programs for the upstart operating system.
One sure sign of the growing acceptance of Linux is the first LinuxWorld Expo trade show, recently held in San Jose, Calif. Companies as diverse as IBM, Oracle, Computer Associates and Corel lined up to announce their support for Linux. The penguin mascot of Linux will soon show up on many more products. Why a penguin? Linus likes them.
Corel recently released WordPerfect for Linux and plans to have all its applications available for Linux by the end of the year.
Corel CEO Michael Cowpland was a keynote speaker at LinuxWorld. He promised that Corel will develop a version of the operating system that is easier to set up, with automatic hardware detection and configuration and a feature that allows users to download the latest updates from the Internet.
Unfortunately, relying on Corel as a bedrock of Linux support is like building the CN Tower on a foundation of quicksand. Is there any company that has switched strategic directions in the past three years as often as Corel?
Cowpland enthusiastically jumps on the bandwagon of the day, only to abandon it if results don't pan out as soon as expected. He previously supported building products for Sun's Java programming language and the Network Computer before backing out of those efforts. The only consolation: Cowpland's been wrong so many times it could finally be his turn to be right.
Linux has the endorsement of stronger players when it comes to high-end enterprise applications developers. SAP, Germany's software powerhouse, and the Oracle of Gates-bashing Larry Ellison both plan to support the operating system. Enthusiasm for Linux isn't universal even in this market. Other important developers, PeopleSoft and J.D. Edwards, see little demand from their users for Linux versions and believe the operating system is still immature.
Most PCs are sold with Windows installed at the factory, whether you want it or not. It's decidedly "not" for a group of Linux users that surrounded Microsoft's office in Foster City, Calif. on Feb. 15, demanding a refund for the factory installed Windows software they didn't want or use. Microsoft offered lemonade and iced tea to the visitors, but no refunds.
But soon computer buyers will have more choice. Compaq, IBM and Dell have all indicated they will offer Linux on selected computer models.
Windows is getting expensive. While the price of computer hardware has plummeted, Microsoft has jacked up the price of its popular operating system. By the time Windows 2000 is released, its cost could represent more than 10 per cent of the cost of a PC. Computer manufacturers who bundle Linux with their computers could offer a significant price advantage to buyers.
A computer with Linux and the Wine emulator for Windows installed at the factory could be attractive to many home and small business users of PCs and significantly boost the number of Linux users. An increased number of Linux users would make the operating system an even more attractive target market for applications software developers. It's just this virtuous cycle that has Microsoft very worried.
In the past, the software giant has crushed competitors by lowering prices and out marketing them. But how can Microsoft compete on price with an operating system that's free?
And then there's Microsoft's tarnished image. After the Justice Department's revelations of Microsoft's anti-competitive business behaviour, Bill Gates is no longer the role model for bright young programmers. Gates increasing looks like an out-of-touch tycoon. It's Linus they like.
Linus Torvalds preached before an estimated 6,000 of the Linux faithful at LinuxWorld Expo earlier this month.
"There's always a danger of over-hyping Linux and I just hope people will just be realistic," Torvalds said. "We want to take over the world but we don't have to do it by tomorrow. It's OK to do it by next week or even next month."
Gates must feel like the Pope listening to Martin Luther. CW
Richard Morochove, FCA, is a Toronto-based computer consultant.
Copyright ©1999 by Morochove & Associates Inc. All rights reserved. This work may not be copied or distributed by any means without our prior written permission.
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